Prelims2
Catch Weight
John Castaneda vs Kyung Ho Kang
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Castaneda
Kyung Ho Kang
69%
31%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
22-8-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-11
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Castaneda: 111 sig / 3 TD ·
Kang: 88 sig / 0 TD
John Castaneda
Kyung Ho Kang
49
Sig strikes landed
52
103
Sig strikes attempted
120
67
Total strikes landed
70
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
22-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Kyung Ho Kang
"Mr. Perfect"
20-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—