Prelims2
Lightweight
Jared Gordon vs Mark Madsen
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jared Gordon
Mark Madsen
65%
35%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
35
Age
Δ 4y
39
21-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-3
L1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gordon: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Madsen: 35 sig / 0 TD
Jared Gordon
Mark Madsen
57
Sig strikes landed
45
100
Sig strikes attempted
89
87
Total strikes landed
62
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
163s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mark Madsen
"The Olympian"
12-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—