Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joshua Van
Kevin Borjas
79%
21%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
22
Age
Δ 4y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Van: 156 sig / 2 TD ·
Borjas: 75 sig / 0 TD
Joshua Van
Kevin Borjas
21
Sig strikes landed
58
69
Sig strikes attempted
120
72
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.70
Knockdowns
0.00
117s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
18-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
Blue corner
Kevin Borjas
"El Gallo Negro"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26