Main
Lightweight
Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Frevola
Benoit Saint Denis
23%
77%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
12-6-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
18-3
W3
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Frevola: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
Saint Denis: 6 sig / 0 TD
Matt Frevola
Benoit Saint Denis
25
Sig strikes landed
40
53
Sig strikes attempted
88
26
Total strikes landed
57
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
41s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
12-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
W4
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—