Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kaiwen
Koya Kanda
63%
37%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
16-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
13-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kaiwen: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Kanda: 56 sig / 1 TD
Kaiwen
Koya Kanda
36
Sig strikes landed
35
92
Sig strikes attempted
102
40
Total strikes landed
43
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
59s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kaiwen
"The Underdog"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2
—
Blue corner
W1
Koya Kanda
"Bushido"
13-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2
—