Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Xiao Long
Shuya Kamikubo
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
28-11
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-2-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Long: 109 sig / 0 TD ·
Kamikubo: 57 sig / 3 TD
Xiao Long
Shuya Kamikubo
43
Sig strikes landed
37
99
Sig strikes attempted
86
67
Total strikes landed
63
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.2
3.8
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
125s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Xiao Long
28-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
—
Blue corner
W1
Shuya Kamikubo
"Stealth"
14-2-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
—