Main
Welterweight
Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Jack Della Maddalena
52%
48%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 8"
73"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
30-15
Career record
Δ 16 pp
19-4
W2
Current streak
W5
19
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Holland: 127 sig / 0 TD ·
Della Maddalena: 105 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Holland
Jack Della Maddalena
62
Sig strikes landed
53
148
Sig strikes attempted
91
71
Total strikes landed
54
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
62s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
19 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
Blue corner
W5
Jack Della Maddalena
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—