🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Flyweight
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alexa Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko
41%
59%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
30
Age
Δ 5y
36
18-5-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
26-5-1
W5
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Grasso: 84 sig / 1 TD ·
Shevchenko: 80 sig / 4 TD
Alexa Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko
58
Sig strikes landed
79
132
Sig strikes attempted
149
102
Total strikes landed
125
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
94s
Control time
242s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Alexa Grasso
18-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
Blue corner
L1
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
26-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—