Back to UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Main Featherweight

Fernando Padilla vs Kyle Nelson

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Fernando Padilla
Kyle Nelson
70% 30%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
27
Age
Δ 6y
32
17-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Padilla: 72 sig / 0 TD · Nelson: 82 sig / 0 TD
Fernando Padilla
Kyle Nelson
37
Sig strikes landed
21
71
Sig strikes attempted
42
45
Total strikes landed
25
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.60
Knockdowns
0.00
83s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Fernando Padilla

"El Valiente"
17-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
Blue corner
W1

Kyle Nelson

"The Monster"
18-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database 7 fights · 2-4
Last 5
W UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
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D UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
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L UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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