Back to UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Prelims1 Flyweight

Edgar Chairez vs Daniel Lacerda

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Edgar Chairez
Daniel Lacerda
60% 40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 0y
27
13-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-7
L1
Current streak
L4
1
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Chairez: 12 sig / 0 TD · Lacerda: 4 sig / 1 TD
Edgar Chairez
Daniel Lacerda
30
Sig strikes landed
25
48
Sig strikes attempted
40
41
Total strikes landed
34
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
119s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Edgar Chairez

"Puro Chicali"
13-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
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Blue corner
L4

Daniel Lacerda

"Miojo"
11-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database 4 fights · 0-4
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
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L UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
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L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
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