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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Lukasz Brzeski

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Lukasz Brzeski
83% 17%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
17-4
Career record
Δ 31 pp
9-8-1
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cortes Acosta: 15 sig / 0 TD · Brzeski: 14 sig / 0 TD
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Lukasz Brzeski
70
Sig strikes landed
56
151
Sig strikes attempted
127
118
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
93s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
4%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Waldo Cortes Acosta

"Salsa Boy"
17-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
W UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
Blue corner
L2

Lukasz Brzeski

"The Bull"
9-8-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
L UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz