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Diego Lopes vs Gavin Tucker

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Diego Lopes
Gavin Tucker
83% 17%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
66"
29
Age
Δ 8y
37
27-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lopes: 0 sig / 0 TD · Tucker: 0 sig / 1 TD
Diego Lopes
Gavin Tucker
46
Sig strikes landed
32
109
Sig strikes attempted
70
59
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Diego Lopes

27-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
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Blue corner
L1

Gavin Tucker

"Guv'nor"
13-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—