Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Benoit Saint Denis
Thiago Moises
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
18-3
Career record
Δ 19 pp
20-10
W3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Saint Denis: 101 sig / 5 TD ·
Moises: 24 sig / 1 TD
Benoit Saint Denis
Thiago Moises
34
Sig strikes landed
25
73
Sig strikes attempted
61
47
Total strikes landed
36
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W2
Thiago Moises
20-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—