Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manel Kape
Felipe dos Santos
70%
30%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 7y
23
W3
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kape: 112 sig / 1 TD ·
dos Santos: 99 sig / 0 TD
Manel Kape
Felipe dos Santos
51
Sig strikes landed
35
92
Sig strikes attempted
88
65
Total strikes landed
37
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
106s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
23-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
Felipe dos Santos
"Lipe Detona"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23