Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tai Tuivasa
Alexander Volkov
14%
86%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
80"
30
Age
Δ 4y
35
15-11
Career record
Δ 21 pp
41-11
L2
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tuivasa: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Volkov: 93 sig / 0 TD
Tai Tuivasa
Alexander Volkov
37
Sig strikes landed
61
71
Sig strikes attempted
104
39
Total strikes landed
74
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
96s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
Blue corner
W2
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—