Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Justin Tafa
Austen Lane
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
7-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
13-8
W2
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tafa: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Lane: 7 sig / 0 TD
Justin Tafa
Austen Lane
29
Sig strikes landed
34
48
Sig strikes attempted
62
36
Total strikes landed
47
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
64s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
7-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
Blue corner
Austen Lane
13-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 0-0