Back to UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Prelims1 Featherweight

Jack Jenkins vs Chepe Mariscal

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jack Jenkins
Chepe Mariscal
52% 48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
15-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Jenkins: 41 sig / 0 TD · Mariscal: 38 sig / 1 TD
Jack Jenkins
Chepe Mariscal
49
Sig strikes landed
47
98
Sig strikes attempted
104
58
Total strikes landed
65
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Jack Jenkins

"Phar"
15-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W1

Chepe Mariscal

"Machine Gun"
19-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—