Prelims1
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney vs Mike Breeden
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Terrance McKinney
Mike Breeden
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
18-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-7
L2
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McKinney: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Breeden: 1 sig / 0 TD
Terrance McKinney
Mike Breeden
39
Sig strikes landed
32
83
Sig strikes attempted
66
57
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
157s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
18-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2
Mike Breeden
"Money"
11-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—