Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
JP Buys
Marcus McGhee
46%
54%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
9-7
Career record
Δ 28 pp
11-2
L3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Buys: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
McGhee: 7 sig / 0 TD
JP Buys
Marcus McGhee
16
Sig strikes landed
36
46
Sig strikes attempted
65
27
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
108s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
JP Buys
"Young Savage"
9-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcus McGhee
"The Maniac"
11-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—