Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Fremd
Jamie Pickett
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
12-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
13-12
W1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fremd: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Pickett: 14 sig / 2 TD
Josh Fremd
Jamie Pickett
33
Sig strikes landed
33
67
Sig strikes attempted
58
53
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
220s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Fremd
12-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
Blue corner
L3
Jamie Pickett
"The Night Wolf"
13-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—