Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
AJ Dobson
Tafon Nchukwi
55%
45%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
7-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
6-5
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dobson: 67 sig / 2 TD ·
Nchukwi: 53 sig / 0 TD
AJ Dobson
Tafon Nchukwi
55
Sig strikes landed
61
128
Sig strikes attempted
118
72
Total strikes landed
75
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
80s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
AJ Dobson
7-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
Blue corner
L2
Tafon Nchukwi
"Da Don"
6-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—