Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Josh Parisian
Martin Buday
34%
66%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
15-9
Career record
Δ 27 pp
17-2
L1
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Parisian: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Buday: 42 sig / 1 TD
Josh Parisian
Martin Buday
50
Sig strikes landed
67
119
Sig strikes attempted
128
66
Total strikes landed
87
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
85s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Parisian
15-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
Blue corner
W3
Martin Buday
"Badys"
17-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—