Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brad Katona
Cody Gibson
62%
38%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
16-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
22-13
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Katona: 160 sig / 0 TD ·
Gibson: 164 sig / 0 TD
Brad Katona
Cody Gibson
48
Sig strikes landed
40
102
Sig strikes attempted
102
67
Total strikes landed
60
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
206s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brad Katona
"Superman"
16-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
L2
Cody Gibson
"The Renegade"
22-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—