Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kurt Holobaugh
Austin Hubbard
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
22-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-11
L4
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Holobaugh: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Hubbard: 44 sig / 2 TD
Kurt Holobaugh
Austin Hubbard
51
Sig strikes landed
52
117
Sig strikes attempted
115
75
Total strikes landed
63
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 0-4
Last 4
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
L1
Austin Hubbard
"Thud"
17-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—