Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Da'Mon Blackshear
Mario Bautista
54%
46%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
18-8-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
18-3
W2
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Blackshear: 90 sig / 4 TD ·
Bautista: 79 sig / 2 TD
Da'Mon Blackshear
Mario Bautista
39
Sig strikes landed
47
88
Sig strikes attempted
97
57
Total strikes landed
58
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
185s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Da'Mon Blackshear
"The Monster"
18-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W4
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—