Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Ian Machado Garry
41%
59%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
32-15
Career record
Δ 27 pp
18-1
W1
Current streak
W5
30
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magny: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Machado Garry: 91 sig / 2 TD
Neil Magny
Ian Machado Garry
43
Sig strikes landed
63
100
Sig strikes attempted
118
57
Total strikes landed
80
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.7
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
49s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
30 fights · 21-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
Blue corner
W5
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
18-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—