Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
Pedro Munhoz
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
65"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
23-13-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-10
L1
Current streak
W1
21
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vera: 141 sig / 0 TD ·
Munhoz: 113 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Vera
Pedro Munhoz
88
Sig strikes landed
79
190
Sig strikes attempted
161
99
Total strikes landed
92
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
54s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
21 fights · 14-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
W1
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
21-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
19 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—