Prelims1
Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues vs Denis Tiuliulin
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
·TD Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gregory Rodrigues
Denis Tiuliulin
86%
14%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
32
Age
Δ 4y
35
19-7
Career record
Δ 25 pp
10-11
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rodrigues: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Tiuliulin: 2 sig / 0 TD
Gregory Rodrigues
Denis Tiuliulin
58
Sig strikes landed
36
114
Sig strikes attempted
90
77
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
104s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
19-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
Blue corner
L1
Denis Tiuliulin
10-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—