Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Weidman
Brad Tavares
57%
43%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
39
Age
Δ 4y
36
16-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
21-14
L1
Current streak
L2
17
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Weidman: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Tavares: 70 sig / 0 TD
Chris Weidman
Brad Tavares
39
Sig strikes landed
54
82
Sig strikes attempted
95
53
Total strikes landed
64
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
186s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L2
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
22 fights · 14-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—