Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Darrius Flowers
78%
22%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
29
L1
Current streak
—
17
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Matthews: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Flowers: 36 sig / 1 TD
Jake Matthews
Darrius Flowers
47
Sig strikes landed
35
90
Sig strikes attempted
75
64
Total strikes landed
47
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
193s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
23-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
Blue corner
Darrius Flowers
"Beast Mode"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29