Prelims2
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger vs Uros Medic
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matthew Semelsberger
Uros Medic
44%
56%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
11-9
Career record
Δ 27 pp
14-3
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Semelsberger: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Medic: 69 sig / 1 TD
Matthew Semelsberger
Uros Medic
35
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
81
39
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
61s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
W1
Uros Medic
"The Doctor"
14-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—