Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
CJ Vergara
Vinicius Salvador
48%
52%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
13-7-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-8
W1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vergara: 109 sig / 0 TD ·
Salvador: 88 sig / 0 TD
CJ Vergara
Vinicius Salvador
54
Sig strikes landed
53
108
Sig strikes attempted
129
74
Total strikes landed
66
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
CJ Vergara
13-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Vinicius Salvador
14-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—