Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Bonfim
Trevin Giles
80%
20%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
20-1
Career record
Δ 24 pp
17-7
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bonfim: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Giles: 1 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Bonfim
Trevin Giles
28
Sig strikes landed
28
63
Sig strikes attempted
61
42
Total strikes landed
32
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
159s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
20-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W2
Trevin Giles
17-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—