Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Kevin Holland
45%
55%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
20-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
30-15
L2
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chiesa: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Holland: 9 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Kevin Holland
29
Sig strikes landed
33
52
Sig strikes attempted
70
50
Total strikes landed
53
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.0
Takedowns attempted
0.0
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
244s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
Blue corner
W1
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
18 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—