Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
King Green
47%
53%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
40
Age
Δ 3y
37
26-12
Career record
Δ 2 pp
35-17-1
L5
Current streak
L2
21
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Ferguson: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Green: 137 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
King Green
70
Sig strikes landed
82
160
Sig strikes attempted
146
87
Total strikes landed
96
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
47s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L5
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
21 fights · 15-6
Last 5
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
L2
King Green
35-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
21 fights · 10-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—