Main
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
65%
35%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
38
Age
Δ 0y
38
29-14
Career record
Δ 0 pp
23-10-1
L3
Current streak
W2
26
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lewis: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Rogerio de Lima: 1 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
11
Sig strikes landed
21
21
Sig strikes attempted
37
25
Total strikes landed
48
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
26 fights · 17-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W2
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—