Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jan Blachowicz
Alex Pereira
69%
31%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
40
Age
Δ 4y
36
29-11-3
Career record
Δ 9 pp
13-4
D1
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Blachowicz: 52 sig / 3 TD ·
Pereira: 70 sig / 0 TD
Jan Blachowicz
Alex Pereira
47
Sig strikes landed
53
112
Sig strikes attempted
104
61
Total strikes landed
67
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Jan Blachowicz
29-11-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
19 fights · 12-6
Last 5
D
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
13-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—