Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Justin Gaethje
56%
44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
34
Age
Δ 0y
35
31-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
28-5
W1
Current streak
W1
28
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Poirier: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Gaethje: 41 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Justin Gaethje
51
Sig strikes landed
58
109
Sig strikes attempted
117
69
Total strikes landed
74
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
97s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
28 fights · 21-6
Last 5
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
W1
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—