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Alexander Munoz vs Carl Deaton

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Alexander Munoz
Carl Deaton
51% 49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
33
Age
Δ 0y
34
7-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-8
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Munoz: 44 sig / 3 TD · Deaton: 37 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Munoz
Carl Deaton
43
Sig strikes landed
63
103
Sig strikes attempted
168
53
Total strikes landed
67
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
141s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Alexander Munoz

7-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
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Blue corner
L1

Carl Deaton

"The Anishinaabe Kid"
17-8 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
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