Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Evan Elder
Genaro Valdez
69%
31%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
26
Age
Δ 5y
32
10-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
10-4
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elder: 96 sig / 1 TD ·
Valdez: 64 sig / 0 TD
Evan Elder
Genaro Valdez
49
Sig strikes landed
39
95
Sig strikes attempted
86
67
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
128s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Evan Elder
"The Phenom"
10-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
Blue corner
L2
Genaro Valdez
"Rayadito"
10-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—