Back to UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Prelims1 Featherweight

Austin Lingo vs Melquizael Costa

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Austin Lingo
Melquizael Costa
32% 68%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
9-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
26-9
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lingo: 39 sig / 0 TD · Costa: 100 sig / 3 TD
Austin Lingo
Melquizael Costa
41
Sig strikes landed
40
109
Sig strikes attempted
97
54
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
73s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Austin Lingo

"Lights Out"
9-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
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L UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
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Blue corner
L1

Melquizael Costa

"The Dalmatian"
26-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
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