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Prelims1 Featherweight

Tucker Lutz vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Tucker Lutz
Melsik Baghdasaryan
65% 35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
32
12-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
8-4
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lutz: 36 sig / 3 TD · Baghdasaryan: 64 sig / 0 TD
Tucker Lutz
Melsik Baghdasaryan
46
Sig strikes landed
50
102
Sig strikes attempted
101
55
Total strikes landed
63
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
134s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Tucker Lutz

"Top Gun"
12-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
Blue corner
L1

Melsik Baghdasaryan

"The Gun"
8-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—