Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ottman Azaitar
Francisco Prado
49%
51%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
33
Age
Δ 12y
21
13-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Azaitar: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Prado: 38 sig / 0 TD
Ottman Azaitar
Francisco Prado
35
Sig strikes landed
21
66
Sig strikes attempted
52
49
Total strikes landed
26
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ottman Azaitar
"Bulldozer"
13-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
L1
Francisco Prado
12-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—