Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Albert Duraev
JunYong Park
51%
49%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
17-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-7
W1
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Duraev: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Park: 50 sig / 0 TD
Albert Duraev
JunYong Park
45
Sig strikes landed
57
115
Sig strikes attempted
114
63
Total strikes landed
80
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Albert Duraev
17-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W3
JunYong Park
"The Iron Turtle"
20-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—