Back to UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Main Middleweight

Ikram Aliskerov vs Warlley Alves

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ikram Aliskerov
Warlley Alves
80% 20%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
18-2
Career record
Δ 28 pp
15-9
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aliskerov: 26 sig / 0 TD · Alves: 12 sig / 0 TD
Ikram Aliskerov
Warlley Alves
39
Sig strikes landed
17
74
Sig strikes attempted
35
53
Total strikes landed
23
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
50s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ikram Aliskerov

18-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
Blue corner
L2

Warlley Alves

15-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—