Main
Bantamweight
Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Said Nurmagomedov
Muin Gafurov
53%
47%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27
18-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-8
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nurmagomedov: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Gafurov: 1 sig / 0 TD
Said Nurmagomedov
Muin Gafurov
46
Sig strikes landed
41
110
Sig strikes attempted
118
62
Total strikes landed
70
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
80s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Said Nurmagomedov
18-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
Blue corner
L1
Muin Gafurov
"Tajik"
20-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—