Back to UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Main Light Heavyweight

Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Magomed Ankalaev
Johnny Walker
74% 26%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 7"
82"
31
Age
Δ 0y
32
21-2-2
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-10
D1
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Ankalaev: 13 sig / 1 TD · Walker: 14 sig / 0 TD
Magomed Ankalaev
Johnny Walker
43
Sig strikes landed
29
72
Sig strikes attempted
70
63
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
-0.2
4.2
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
233s
Control time
-8s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
D1

Magomed Ankalaev

21-2-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 11 fights · 9-1
Last 5
D UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
W UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
W UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
Blue corner
W3

Johnny Walker

23-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
W UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
W UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
L UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…