Main
Middleweight
Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Khamzat Chimaev
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 7y
30
21-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
16-1
L2
Current streak
W6
17
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Usman: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Chimaev: 38 sig / 4 TD
Kamaru Usman
Khamzat Chimaev
51
Sig strikes landed
54
103
Sig strikes attempted
91
77
Total strikes landed
72
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
175s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 15-2
Last 5
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
Blue corner
W6
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
16-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—