Back to UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
🏆 Title fight Main Lightweight

Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Alexander Volkanovski
68% 32%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
29-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
29-4
W8
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Makhachev: 24 sig / 0 TD · Volkanovski: 4 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Alexander Volkanovski
51
Sig strikes landed
37
89
Sig strikes attempted
90
72
Total strikes landed
80
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
211s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W8

Islam Makhachev

29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 14 fights · 13-1
Last 5
W UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
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W UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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W UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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W UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1

Alexander Volkanovski

"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 14 fights · 13-1
Last 5
W UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
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L UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
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W UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
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W UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
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W UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
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