Prelims1
Flyweight
Tim Elliott vs Muhammad Mokaev
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Muhammad Mokaev
20%
80%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
37
Age
Δ 14y
23
23-14-1
Career record
Δ 39 pp
14-0
W2
Current streak
W4
18
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Elliott: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Mokaev: 14 sig / 3 TD
Tim Elliott
Muhammad Mokaev
27
Sig strikes landed
35
57
Sig strikes attempted
80
46
Total strikes landed
94
0.9
Takedowns landed
3.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
109s
Control time
453s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
6%
Submission
74%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tim Elliott
23-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 8-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
W4
Muhammad Mokaev
"The Punisher"
14-0
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—